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Global Investment Outlook June 2022

Xavier Baraton

Stress test: portfolio strategy for a uniquely uncertain world

Welcome to our mid-year outlook. I’m pleased to share with you the findings of our latest views on the world’s economies and markets for the months to come.

In our previous Strategic Forum in March, we expected markets to continue to struggle. We however didn’t imagine that our macro scenarios would deteriorate so much further, leading many asset classes to perform very negatively. This is why we termed this publication as “Stress Test".

The next decade will feel very different to the last. A new economic regime - stubborn inflation, higher rates and more turbulence is coming into view.

It's time to think about how to tackle these issues and think about what comes next.

Read the full 2022 Mid Year Investment Outlook

Your questions answered and what can you expect

Maria Ryan sits down with CIO Xavier Baraton, Chief Economist Joe Little, Head of Global Emerging Markets Equity Stephanie Wu and Global Head of Equity Vis Nayar asking them questions from clients and finding out what we can expect in the months to come.

Key takeaways

Macro outlook: The tectonic plates of the economy are moving … the economic regime is changing. Top of mind: - What’s the outlook on inflation? - What about the broader economy? - Will the US go into recession next year? - What about corporate earnings? - What’s the latest view on emerging markets? Bottom-up credit migration: Default rates globally should remain below historical averages over the next twelve months but we need to be alert to the risks of an earnings recession. When bears attack: Sub-Saharan Africa is an example where long term themes are fairly ambivalent to global growth and inflation concerns. Adapting to a new regime: Several structure themes including de-globalisation, climate policy, and the commodity super-cycle have come to the fore.

Investment expertise

Fixed income

Multi-asset

Liquidity

Equities

Sustainable investments

Risk Warning

The value of investments and any income from them can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any views and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. We accept no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. Please note that some products are subject to regulatory approval and may not be available in your respective countries. This Outlook is provided for information purposes only.